Age of Wonders

Bill Quick sends an e-mail to Glenn Reynolds:

So I’m out on my bike today - it’s gorgeous in SF - and I stop by the Bay for a breather and just to sit and watch the sailboats gliding under the Bay Bridge.

I open my backpack and drag out my 3 lb Lenovo with builtin EVDO, fire it up, and check my blog. Then yours - and see your post about The Mirrored Heavens. I click the link and check it out at Amazon. Sounds right up my alley. So I open my Sony eReader, connect it to my laptop, and buy the book for ten bucks, download it, and watch it join the 400 or so other books sitting in my reader.

It’s next on the “pile,” after I finish crunching my way through Peter Hamilton’s endless, but fascinating trilogy.

Speaking as a SF writer, I can tell you that intellectually this shouldn’t amaze me (and intellectually, I expect the process to be a lot more seamless in a couple of years), but as a 62 year old person who can remember when phones were black, tvs had tiny round screens, and the “network” was The Lone Ranger on CBS radio, there are times it seems downright miraculous.

Thanks for the recommendation.


Who’s Better: Medicare or Private Insurance?

Last month, in a meeting at work, I listened to a presentation about medical billing and denials. During the presentation, the presenter made an offhand remark at insurance companies denying claims “without ever seeing the patient or knowing what the needs are”. The unstated assumption was that a government run health plan would do a better job of making sure that people got the healthcare they need. (At my job, that’s usually the assumption, stated or otherwise.)

But is that really true? Well, not if you hold up Medicare as an example of well-run government healthcare. This week, Scott Gottlieb wrote an interesting op-ed for the Wall Street Journal: “What’s at Stake in the Medicare Showdown”.

First, there’s a mistaken belief that Medicare is better staffed than private plans, and can therefore make better decisions about patients’ clinical circumstances and the access to new therapies they should have. Yet at any time, Medicare has about 20 doctors and 40 total clinicians (including nurses) inside the coverage office, and fewer than a dozen in the office that sets the rates that doctors are reimbursed for the care they provide. Private insurers employ thousands of doctors, nurses and pharmacists, many experts in new technologies.

Aetna has more than 140 physicians and about 3,300 nurses, pharmacists and other clinicians across its health plans. Wellpoint has 4,000 clinicians across its different businesses, including 125 doctors and 3,180 nurses. That works out to one clinician for every 9,000 people covered. United Healthcare employs about 600 doctors and 12,000 clinicians across all of its health plans and various health-care businesses.

Private plans use clinically trained people to establish access to new technologies and services, but they also consult with doctors on a case-by-case basis, determining whether a product or service should be covered. Competition for beneficiaries means private plans need to provide better access for appeals, modern services and more personal considerations than what’s offered by Medicare, a monopoly supplier.

Recent data from Price Waterhouse Coopers found that private plans spend roughly four times more than Medicare on “consumer services, provider support, and marketing,” which includes money spent answering the telephone to adjudicate individual issues. Smaller health plans use one clinician for every 10,000 beneficiaries. Medicare would need 4,500 clinicians to keep pace.

One place where the clinician disparity is most obvious is the delivery of cancer benefits. Medicare doesn’t have a single oncologist on staff, yet since the year 2000 the program issued, by my count, 165 restrictions and directives on the use of cancer drugs and diagnostic tools.

A second common refrain is that Medicare is more efficient than private plans, spending less money per beneficiary to administer health services. But a lot of the money that private plans spend is on clinical specialists charged not only with reviewing individual cases, but also with ensuring that doctors and beneficiaries comply with plan contracts. Far from a selling point, not having these functions is one of Medicare’s shortcomings.

Medicare doesn’t need to hire doctors to weigh individual medical cases because it uses formulaic rules made in Washington to set broad and inflexible restrictions on medical practice. Nor does the program need to hire clinical staff to monitor compliance. It passes costs for that on to the broader health-care system by backing up its rules with the threat of costly civil and even criminal sanctions. Providers and medical product developers spend hundreds of millions of dollars on systems, personnel and paperwork to ensure compliance with Medicare’s sticky morass of regulations – tasks made more expensive by the fuzziness of the program’s regulations and the arbitrary way they are enforced.

When you put it that way, I’d far rather have my expenses reviewed by private insurance than by Medicare. Instead of an example to follow, Medicare looks like a cautionary tale of what not to do.

I work with a lot of bright people. I wish they would question their assumptions more often and not just fall back on the tired rhetoric of “profit-seeking companies are bad” and “government programs really do help people”.


Fact Checking the Supreme Court

Apparently, Justices no longer have to fact check their Supreme Court opinions or dissents. Justice Stevens’ dissent had two rather major errors:

Comment on to previous post points out at p.2 of the Stevens dissent he refers to NFA and US v. Miller: “Upholding a conviction under that Act, this Court held that…”

Same mistake the 9th Circus made years ago and had to issue a new opinion, since Miller was never convicted — commentators noted this was pretty suggestive the court hadn’t bothered to read Miller before citing it. First thing you look for in reading a case is what happened below, and what the Court do to that. Very first thing.

I’d add that at 41 he refers to:

“In 1901 the President revitalized the militia by creating the ‘National Guard of the several States,’ Perpich 496 U.S. at 341 and nn. 9-10.”

Reading that part of Perpich v. Dodd: It says in 1901 President Roosevelt called for reforming the militia. He didn’t create the National Guard (where would he have had the authority?)

How much should I trust the rest of his dissent?


Why is Oil So Expensive?

As I’ve mentioned in the past, I enjoy reading a few economics blogs. Lately, oil prices have been a hot topic — why are they high?, are they too high?, are they too low?, are speculators driving up the price, etc. It’s been a fascinating discussion.

Yesterday, Arnold Kling suggested that it’s more likely that oil prices were too low last year than that oil prices are too high this year. In other words, we’re not in an “oil bubble” created by evil speculators.

Early in 2007, the price of oil was $60 a barrel. Recently, it has been above $130 a barrel. Which of the following does Paul Krugman believe:

(a) market fundamentals justified $60 a barrel then, and they justify $130 a barrel now; or

(b) market fundamentals justified a much higher price in 2007?

I believe that (b) is more likely to be true, meaning that we had what Tyler Cowen calls an “anti-bubble” in oil.

(Via EconLog.)

I don’t know if he’s right or not, but I suspect he could be. I don’t think demand has gone up that much between this year and last year. Maybe people are just now realizing how fundamentally the Indian and Chinese demand for energy is going to change the world?


Can Anyone Ban Handguns?

The Heller decision was a big win for the 2nd Amendment: it established that citizens do have a right to own guns. Unfortunately, that decision only applies to the federal government. What about the states? It will take a new court case — and a new decision — to establish whether or not the 2nd Amendment applies to state and local governments.

Well, that didn’t take long. It looks like that new court case is on it’s way: SCOTUSblog » New case tests Second Amendment’s reach:

In a newly filed lawsuit in federal court in Chicago, two gun rights organizations and four individuals asked that the Second Amendment be extended to block strict gun laws at the state and local level. “The Second Amendment right,” the complaint contended, “is incorporated as against the states and their political subdivisions pursuant to the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.”

The case, McDonald, et al., v. City of Chicago, et al. (District docket 08-3645), was filed in U.S. District Court in Chicago to challenge a city ordinance that bars registration of handguns with only a few exceptions, and that limits registration of other guns. The case was assigned to Senior District Judge Milton I. Shadur. The complaint can be read here.


I’m Glad I Don’t Eat Local

With the spring weather that we had this year, eating local doesn’t look like such a great idea:

The floods that damaged farms in southern Wisconsin will likely result in fewer fruits and vegetables at farmers’ markets this summer and help boost already high prices for organic eggs and meat at grocery stores in the fall.

A cool spring meant many farmers were about two weeks behind in planting. The storms struck just as their first plants emerged from the ground.

“Twelve inches of water falling on, say, this field of beets that were just starting to peak through the soil, it just washed them away,” de Wilde said. “They couldn’t withstand that kind of deluge.”

Organic corn fed to livestock that provide organic eggs, chicken, beef and pork was barely 4 inches high, half of what it should have been, said Eric Newman, vice president of sales for La Farge-based Organic Valley, the nation’s largest cooperative of organic farmers.

Thankfully, today’s progressive consumer can secure an organic diet no matter what the local market is like:

California supplies over half of the nation’s organic fruits and vegetables and should be able to make up for losses in Wisconsin and other flooded states, Newman said.

It’s a good thing we have a robust, distributed economy. Even though local farms are having a tough time, we won’t have to worry about anyone starving or eating an unbalanced diet.


GM Plant Closes: Who’s to Blame?

This morning, General Motors announced that it would be closing four plants — including the Janesville, Wisconsin plant. Everyone was talking about the news today. Most of the talk centered around who to blame. The most popular candidates were President Bush; the evil, greedy managers of GM; and even President Reagan (!).

Governor Doyle’s opinion:

“Bad corporate decision kept these lines turning out gas guzzlers as fuel prices went from 2 dollars to 3 dollars and now to 4 dollars per gallon.

“Now we stand here, carrying the burden of those bad corporate decisions — failed leadership that culminated in a calculation that left out the very heart of this company, the workers who built”

Senator Obama’s opinion:

“Unlike John McCain, I’m not in this race to extend the failed Bush economic policies; I’m in this race to end them,” Obama said. “I’ve proposed investing $150 billion over ten years in green energy and creating up to five million new green jobs. We’ll finally provide domestic automakers with the funding they need to retool their factories and make fuel-efficient and alternative fuel cars. And we’ll invest in efforts to make sure that the cars of the future are made where they always have been — in the United States. Because the fight for American manufacturing is the fight for America’s future — and I believe that’s a fight this country will win.”

As I read through the various articles, I noticed a few hints about why American automakers might need funding to produce fuel-efficient cars.

High Labor Costs:

In the past, costs generally were too high for Detroit automakers to turn a profit on small U.S.-built cars. But [Chief Executive Rick] Wagoner said GM has lowered costs enough with new labor contracts and other measures to turn a profit.

“The direct answer is we need to,” Wagoner told reporters. “We believe we can build a car there profitably.”

Generous Benefits:

Fisher said some of the hardest hit residents will be those employed by suppliers and other businesses dependent on GM, noting that GM often has been called “generous motors” for its pay and benefits.

That corporate generosity — often granted at the barrel of a UAW gun — destroyed GM’s ability to make a profit on small cars. Because of high labor costs, GM only earned a decent profit on the more expensive trucks and SUVs. With gas costing $4 gallon GM can no longer afford to keep producing gas hogs — or keep employing a pricey workforce.

Finally, it’s interesting to note that Senator Kohl believes only the government is capable of retraining GM’s employees.

“With the announcement that General Motors plans to close this plant, thousands of skilled and dedicated workers face a stark future of employment and financial uncertainty,” Kohl said. “Secretary Chao seems to understand the severity of the situation and assured me that the Labor Department would take immediate steps to retrain workers at the plant. Only then can these employees learn new skills necessary to finding new jobs.

Silly me. This plant has been on life support for quite a while. I thought that the employees might have taken that as a warning sign to improve their own skills and start learning a new trade.

And, yes, I do feel for these workers. I can sympathize with the fear that comes from losing a steady income and facing an uncertain future. In some measure, the future is always uncertain. I prefer to always plan for that uncertainty, as best as I possibly can. I never want to just assume that if I ignore the uncertainty — or appeal to Washington — that it will just go away.


Single Column Bibles

I’d really like to buy a single-column Bible in the near future. Of all of my Bible wants, I think this is the biggest. Of course, I also want a black letter Bible, that’s printed in a paragraph-by-paragraph format rather than a verse-by-verse format. Here’s a quick rundown of the major candidates:

ESV Study Bible (Crossway)

  • 9-point type, single-column layout for the Bible text; 7.25-point type, double-column layout for the notes
  • Size: 6.5″ x 9.25″
  • 2,752 pages

It looks like a good candidate and I’ll probably buy a copy just for all of the “study Bible” features. But the pages themselves look really busy and distracting. That’s mostly due to those same “study Bible” features.

ESV Literary Study Bible (Crossway, Amazon)

  • 8.5-point type
  • Size: 6″ x 9″
  • 1,952 pages

The ESV LSB is smaller than the ESV Study Bible, with a slightly smaller font size. The text is printed in a paragraph-by-paragraph format rather than a verse-by-verse format. The font size is slightly smaller than I’d prefer, but I don’t think it would be too small (sample pages).

I’m afraid that I’ll get annoyed at the embedded literary study notes. I have no doubt that they’ll be very useful and educational. Unfortunately, they break up the text and make the Bible larger than it otherwise would be. That will distract me from using this Bible as a pure reading Bible.

ESV Personal Size Reference Bible (Crossway, Amazon)

  • 7.4-point type
  • Size: 5″ x 7.25″
  • 1,308 pages

I think this Bible is exactly what I want — except for the tiny font size. (Sample pages.)

TNIV Reference Bible (Zondervan)

  • 9-point type
  • Size: 6.9″ x 9.8″
  • 1408 pages

I generally prefer the ESV over the TNIV. This Bible would have to really impress me, for me to purchase a TNIV instead of an ESV. This Bible comes close, but I think the verse numbers and footnote letters are distracting. (Sample pages.)

Conclusion

Right now, I think I’d like to purchase the Literary Study Bible as a “bedside” Bible and an ESV Personal Reference Bible as an “out and about” Bible.


Soli Deo Gloria

Soli Deo Gloria means “God’s Glory Alone”. When Martin Luther, John Calvin, and the rest of the Reformers tried to reform the Catholic church, they summarized their teachings under five main statements: Sola Scriptura (Scripture Alone), Soli Deo Gloria (God’s Glory Alone), Solus Christus (Christ Alone), Sola Gratia (Grace Alone), and Sola Fide (Faith Alone). At some point I’ll probably talk about all five of these ideas. Right now, I just want to touch on Soli Deo Gloria.

Soli Deo Gloria is the idea that everything on earth happens for a reason. What reason is that? Everything happens to make people recognize the greatness of God. This is one of the main themes running throughout the Bible. God eventually works everything out in a way that will bring Him glory. This has a lot of implications. Some of them are nice to think about and some of them are a little bit scary scary to think about.

I’m not going to talk about that tonight. Tonight, I’m going to share a Bible passage that illustrate this principle. This is a poem, written by a man named Asaph. His nation, Israel, has been conquered and decimated by foreign enemies. But notice the focus of his poetry: he is ultimately concerned for God’s repuation and God’s glory. He wants his nation restored. But he doesn’t want his nation restored because of his national pride. He wants his nation restored so that other nations will know that God is real and is powerful.

Psalm 79

79:1 O God, the nations have come into your inheritance;
they have defiled your holy temple;
they have laid Jerusalem in ruins.
They have given the bodies of your servants
to the birds of the heavens for food,
the flesh of your faithful to the beasts of the earth.
They have poured out their blood like water
all around Jerusalem,
and there was no one to bury them.
We have become a taunt to our neighbors,
mocked and derided by those around us.

How long, O Lord? Will you be angry forever?
Will your jealousy burn like fire?
Pour out your anger on the nations
that do not know you,
and on the kingdoms
that do not call upon your name!
For they have devoured Jacob
and laid waste his habitation.

Do not remember against us our former iniquities;
let your compassion come speedily to meet us,
for we are brought very low.
Help us, O God of our salvation,
for the glory of your name;
deliver us, and atone for our sins,
for your name’s sake!
Why should the nations say,
“Where is their God?”
Let the avenging of the outpoured blood of your servants
be known among the nations before our eyes!

Let the groans of the prisoners come before you;
according to your great power, preserve those doomed to die!
Return sevenfold into the lap of our neighbors
the taunts with which they have taunted you, O Lord!
But we your people, the sheep of your pasture,
will give thanks to you forever;
from generation to generation we will recount your praise. (ESV)


Reading and Understanding the Bible

The Bible is old and complex. How can I possibly expect to understand it? Every time a pastor gets up, he seems to teach something from the Bible that I’ve never even seen before. Why should I even bother trying to read it myself?

The truth is, I can learn to read the Bible for myself. It takes practice — but I have my whole life to get it right. I don’t have to develop into a theologian overnight. My church recently taught a session on how to read the Bible. I wasn’t able to attend, but a friend did. I’ll share a portion of her notes.

  1. Begin with the context: historical - the writer - the audience - the culture - other events
    • Read headings before/after this chapter. What is going on? Whose life is being chronicled?
    • Is this a minor or major incident?
    • What else do we know about the people involved?
  2. List questions that occur to you as you read this passage. Try to forget past messages you have heard or books and studies you have read about this. Read with fresh eyes and think about someone telling you this story. What would you ask them before you go on? What do you need further clarification on?
    • What?
    • Why?
    • When?
    • How?
    • Where?
    • Who?
  3. Look for repeated words, details, unfamiliar terms.
  4. What are differences/similarities between the original audience and us.
  5. What principle(s) cross cultural divide? What is applicable to us in our culture?

I’m not a Bible expert. Answering the Who, When, What, Why questions can be tough. It can even be tough to know who the writer and audience are or what the culture was. Even with those principles, how can I really know what’s going on?

I start with the realization that the Bible was written for me, but it wasn’t written to me. I first heard this idea when Dr. John Walton spoke at Blackhawk. His sermon — Why Didn’t God Call the Light, Light helped me to see that the Bible doesn’t necessarily speak in the way that I expect it to speak. I can’t simply pick it up and read it the same way that I would read a novel or a science textbook. I have to read it the way that the original audience read it.

Fortunately, Dr. Walton helped me to do just that. He didn’t personally help me, but one of his books did. Old Testament Today is an Old Testament overview that helped me understand the Old Testament in a way that I never had before. It has a very unique style:

Old Testament Today is unique among Old Testament surveys. It not only provides an orientation to the world of the Old Testament but also builds a bridge between the original audience and modern readers, demonstrating why the ancient message is important for faith and life today.

Old Testament Today goes beyond basic content to help students understand what the Scriptures mean and how to apply them personally. [T]his text takes the reader section by section through the Old Testament using a progressive, three-step format:

  1. Original Meaning presents the details of the content, focusing on the story line, historical background, and literary information that address the original setting and audience.
  2. Bridging Contexts focuses on theological perspectives and on issues of the authors purpose and the universal message of the text, building a bridge between the original audience and todays audience.
  3. Contemporary Significance develops an understanding of the relevance of the Old Testament writings to todays Christian, showing how they can be applied in personal faith and practice.

It covers the major sections of the Old Testament: the Fundamentals of the Old Testament, the Pentateuch, Historical Literature, Prophets, Wisdom Literature, Psalms, and a wrap-up. It really helped me to understand where each book fits and how the different parts of the Old Testament mesh together. (Google Books will give you a bit of a sneak peak at the book.)

After reading Old Testament Today and seeing how the three-step process worked, I wanted to get more than just an overview of the entire Old Testament. I wanted to understand each book, using that same method. The NIV Life Application Commentary series fills that need perfectly. Each commentary focuses on one book of the Bible and uses the same three step method (Original Meaning, Bridging Contexts, and Contemporary Significance) to explain what’s happening in the text.

If you’re like me — you want to both read and understand the Bible, I’d highly recommend buying a few of these books.